Opaque and rigid regulatory policies This may provoke withdrawal from the market for at least another 50 banks.
The process of "purification" of the Ukrainian market of banks there was always writes Elena Romaniuk in magazine №8Correspondentof 4 March 2016. Financial institutions as established and burst. But with the advent of the National Bank of Valerie Gontareva closure of banks has become just like an avalanche.
If, according to the resourceForinshurerBy 1998-2013 years of the Ukrainian market was removed 34 insolvent banks and depositing received from the Deposit Guarantee Fund individuals 5.8 billion USD, and by 2014-2015 the figure has increased to 63 banks and depositors paid 54 billion.
However, as reported on the website of the NBU, the loss of Ukrainian banks last year amounted to 66.6 billion USD (less insolvent banks) - almost twice as many as in 2014 (33.1 billion USD).
This year the trend continued liquidation of financial institutions. According to experts, is expected to retreat at least another 50 small banks. Online Deposit Guarantee Fund under withdrawal of banks from the market is about 60 institutions.
"Given the situation we are seeing in the financial sector by the end of the year or next year in Ukraine will remain less than 100 banks", - predicts the head of the press withluzhby Prostobank Consulting Ivan Nikitchenko.
Why liquidation has become so massive character? Market participants do not hide - the whole thing in liquidity, or rather its absence.
"Ukraine is quite complicated and the economic and military-political situation. Naturally, this is reflected in the work, including banks. Because of their efficiency and ability to pay are directly dependent on the financial status of their customers - it is affected by the dynamics of account balances and deposit accounts, and timeliness of loan repayment. Now we are seeing stagnation in the economy and reduce welfare. Accordingly, banks feel no better, "- says the former head of the Board Ukrhawithbanks Sergey Mamedov.
Over the past two years, the citizens of Ukraine were taken from the banks of currency totaling about $ 16 billion. The share of non-performing loans in banks reached 28% of the total issued
"Over the past two years, the citizens of Ukraine were taken from the banks of currency totaling about $ 16 billion. This is a huge figure," - said, in turn, the President of the Ukrainian Analytical Center Oleksandr Okhrimenko. Thus, according to him, the share of non-performing loans in banks reached 28% of the total issued.
"It is clear that this NPLs can be no question of borrowing. Banks do not know what to do with these loans - which makes sense to issue new? "- Asks the expert.
In fear of harsh actions of the National Bank for violation of norms, banks are trying to collect at least some liquidity, and in the national currency, which also limits the issuance of their loans.
Of course, similar situation, albeit not on such a scale, occurred before. But then to help financial institutions come NBU - regulator, which should not only support the currency, but also to refinance the banks in case of need (one of the functions of the National Bank - lender of last resort). Now NBU almost refused to refinance troubled banks. If the institution enters a temporary administration, then it is rather the opposite, provoking even more capital outflows. In addition, the shareholders of the bank are afraid to capitalize because there is a high risk everything to lose.
"The reason that customers rushing to withdraw their money from the bank, which introduced a temporary administration - lack of NBU transparent and understandable for all approaches to the closure of financial institutions. But given the history of the banking sector in Ukraine, where banks created every little bit oligarch for service in the first place the interests of their own business, saints in our market there, and close you can almost every bank. But NBU does not. Instead, he Wool market for completely transparent and it is a well-known criteria "- outraged at comments correspondent Director of one of the capital banks.
However, some of these criteria, market participants still allocated.
"The first and probably the main reason why the bank acknowledged insolvent and subject to liquidation, - his greedy assets. For example, good offices in the city center'sOroş loans (bank credited profitable industries or successful shopping centers). In this case, the NBU knows about these assets and trying their official use "- saysCorrespondenta former bank employee who now works in the interim administration.
The second reason why the bank refused to refinance and virtually bankrupt - is politically motivated. The list of bankrupt has hit banks EBE Yanukovych Jr.,Forum.
"In fact, all the banks" Family "suffered because of political motives. Because, given the administrative resources, which they enjoyed previously, these banks feel good. They had no problem loans and, consequently, the objective reasons for their elimination was not ", - says Director Departmentsthat the capital of the bank.
He also said that for political reasons recognized insolvent on February 26 and transferred to the DGFRodovid Bank- An institution that since 2011 despite all the problems, acted as a curative and, apparently, no one interfered.
But, according to sourcesKorrespondentDespite the fact that the Bank managed state, all the top managers at the agency were people Ivanyuschenka George. He is known for a long time served the interests of Viktor Yanukovych. He also belonged to the small, but as they say in the market, rather "clean" bankTC creditWhich also closed in February, before the clan refused the servicesfrom the bank. The official reason for the recognitionTC creditinsolvent - the lack of a transparent ownership structure of the bank.
Tighter requirements for ownership structure, market participants also called one criterion, guided by the National Bank will close more than a dozen banks. This requires all banks should disclose the ownership structure and show the final beneficiaries by April 1 this year. Otherwise, the punishment will be severe.
So, for example, in the case of the LC credit or even earlier - withPetrocommerce-Ukraine. The owner of the latter after the change of ownership was the so-called football team - 11 individuals, each of whom had a package less than 10%, so a formal agreement is not required coordination regulator. In NBU felt this opaque ownership structure and bank recognized problem. Although the chey moment, say,Petrocommerceissue decided and still continues to work.
Note that the NBU is not simply require mandatory disclosure of the actual beneficiaries of the buyer, but also brings them substantial property claims, checking their tax compliance. The main snag is the legality of funds, and this is having big problems. "We will never agree on a deal if the buyer simply brought the money in a suitcase" - told the NBU.
Many market participants in informal commentsCorrespondentstated that mandatory disclosure of the actual beneficiaries of the buyer's bank - no more than a game to the public. NBU actually know who is on each bank. Just as these people are not legalized, against which it is impossible to start criminal prosecution. In dopyyou go to middle managers, of which did not take.
Deposit Guarantee Fund has initiated the opening of 900 criminal proceedings, persons involved parts of which are shareholders of the bank is bankrupt. The amount of loss in these cases is 115 billion
Whereas, according to the director of the department investigation of illegal acts and combating corruption DGF Catherine Mysnyk fund has initiated the opening of 900 criminal proceedings, persons involved parts of which are shareholders of the bank is bankrupt. The amount of loss in these cases is 115 billion USD. and newly legalized shareholders, people can really hold true "bread and spectacle."
Go bankrupt or merge
Excite the banking sector and moreThis one requirement. Along with the opening of the real beneficiary banks should increase its authorized capital to 300 million USD. And do it immediately.
In particular, according to the NBU, as of February 22 registered capital of more than 300 million have already had 43 banks, 16 had internal reserves for capital to formation, and 51 had to urgently consider other sources of capitalization. Another four financial institutions lacked less than 10% for capitalization to the required level.
"The requirement to increase capital to 300 million fully meets the increasing risks in the banking system, offsetting an increase in outstanding debt and the appreciation of the euro", - said the NBU.
Market participants are predicting a new series of bankruptcies or mergers of banks associated CAIU failure to comply with this rule.
"It would be desirable to avoid bankruptcy, but it depends to a greater extent on the ability of shareholders to fulfill new requirements for bank capital. Unfortunately, some banks will make it difficult. So I am sure that soon we will see the actual process of merging banks ", - Mamedov predicts.
In turn, the former deputy head of the NBU Sergey Yaremenko believes that banks do not want to capitalize bankers.
"After all, everyone is thinking:" Is there a future in my bank? Why should I fill up when I had already accumulated capital and the money to live exactly? A vlyvshy them in the bank - it's in two grandmother said. " Because no one today would say - this is a stop or not? Or hryvnia to fall further and further? "- Says Yaremenko.
"If anyone remembers Gontareva always told me that as soon as the banks will increase their capital, once the market will withdraw all those who can not do it, and in general, the banking system to get rid of troubled banks will once economic miracle. Several times banks were stress tests. Calculated as far as you need to increase capital. Some even have increased his. But what is surprising, as the capital increase banks and clearing system of problem banks, the situation is not only not improved, but deteriorated further. Just look at the graph of the ratio of non-performing loans to bank capital ", - said in his blog on liga.net Okhrimenko.
In his view, the situation today is critical.
"It need not" searchlights and reform "and laborious and the work on clearing debris that were created in the banking system of Ukraine after the" reforms Gontareva. " A further increase in banks' capital makes no sense to say there is not the head of the NBU. It should be no capital increase and decrease the volume of bad loans, "- said the expert.
Solidarity with him and Yaremenko. When debtors condition is not improving, and the banking system collapses, the client appears the worst - a sense that debt give only cowards. They simply stop paying on loans, says the expert.
And customers do not return the loan in the case when they know that tomorrow they do not need to take the next loan when they believed that they still bankrupt. All this leads to the fact that almost all banks, except for some large foreign institutions, to increase the authorized capital will not be, says Yaremenko and, therefore, we will see further destruction of the banking system.
"For such a model of regulation of the financial market recovery in the banking sector is impossible. In Gontareva no model in mind, it just takes someone else's demands. Perhaps it comes, that make exchange rate flexibility was a mistake, but recognize that it will not allow. If we abandon the previous course and blame everything on the IMF - it would be political suicide. Thus, we are in a mousetrap from which escape is impossible under the existing schedule, "- says ex-deputy head of the NBU.
The bankruptcy of a large number of banks - is not harmless process. Pending such business failures, trying to save money is in the shadow sphere
Former Minister of Economy of Ukraine Viktor Suslov facenews.ua in an interview said that the bankruptcy of a large number of banks - is not harmless process. Pending such business failures, trying to save money is in the shadow sector, starts to carry large amounts of cash.
"Recently, even in Kiev many shops refuse to accept credit cards and require payment in cash to spend. This is evidenced by the fact that the business no longer wish to make payments on accounts of the banking system, there is a great cash flow, there is a shadow economy. Therefore, the process is still in an unfavorable direction, "- said the expert.
However, adds that the general requirements of the National Bank related to the build-up of equity in financial institutions, are correct. As a result, he said, of course, reduce the number of banks, but those who survive will be more stable.
This material is published in №8 magazine reporter on March 42016. Reprints of publications journal Correspondent in full is prohibited. With regulations magazine Korrespondent, published in The New York site can be found Here.